Sort of Tropical Storm Nicole

There has been a very broad area of disturbed weather than has consolidated enough for NHC to start advisories and tracking this morning. Here are the Key Messages regarding Subtropical Storm Nicole. Here is the impact swath using the new forecast – it’s expected to be a big storm with broad (but not catastrophic) impacts:

Click to embiggen.

The forecast track is only fair at this point, but that probably doesn’t matter too much unless it strengthens more than currently forecast. The NHC track has the storm making landfall around Vero Beach as a tropical storm, but GFS now has it landing over Miami as a hurricane. We should know more later today. Either way, the entire southeast coast from Miami to the Outer Banks will probably feel this at some point. Expect some track shifts as things settle down. There are tropical storm watches over The Bahamas, and the US coast will start to see watches today. Florida is going to see some damage – maybe upwards of $2 Billion, with some compounding due to the ongoing cleanup from Ian.

By the way, remember that due to the time change NHC advisories are now at 4am, 10am, 4pm, and 10pm, with intermediate updates at 7am, 1pm, 7pm, and 1am. NHC advisories and all weather forecasts globally are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC – formerly known as Greenwich Mean Time – GMT) so it changes with our stupid time zone shifts.

For Coastal Georgia and the SC Lowcountry, the onshore winds will mean tides will be running above normal this week – tomorrow is full moon (and remember there is a total lunar eclipse in the morning, peak will be around 6am with the moon low in the west). So we all know what that means: people right on the coast will likely seem some shallow flooding around high tides. On the current track and speed the peak storm effects in this area will be late in the week, Friday and Saturday as the storm passes either directly over the area or just offshore. Winds should pick up Tuesday (this is a very broad storm system), and Friday will likely be messy – or not, depending on the exact track. At this point hard to tell if there will be cancellations Friday. Things should start to clear out Saturday – but the timing is hard to tell at this point.

Administrative note: as previously noted, I’m still trying to figure out how to navigate the increasingly nasty internet environment and to what extent to continue posts, and in what format.. Since this storm will impact many of those who have followed the blog for some time I will be doing periodic posts (and for those who don’t like it can just, um, well, you know – why are you wasting time bothering me if I don’t know what I’m talking about???). I’m going to allow for comments for now in case people have questions (and to be fair the vast majority are great!)

43 thoughts on “Sort of Tropical Storm Nicole

  1. Thank you! I had heard a tiny bit about this, and am thrilled that you decided to give us your always calm, to the point description of the event! ~ Forever thankful for your posts

    • Thank you for your no hype analysis on the weather. Also, I have been following since before Mathew. Hoping you will rise above the haters and continue.

  2. Thank you for your continued service to our community. Been reading from Savannah since before Matthew. Thanks, you truly allay my fears.

  3. Thank you for the update. I absolutely feel your sanity and safety come first but, thank you for helping keep my weather insanity in check.

  4. Thank you for continuing your posts. You are the only one I trust for storm information. As you know we can’t trust the rating seeking media these days. Thanks again.

  5. Chuck, Thank you for your informative and so helpful notices and explanations! I continue to appreciate your work and would be glad to contribute to keep your weather posts coming ! Please let us know if/ when / how to do so.
    Kim Traub Ribbens
    ( close friend of your neighbors Odette and Robin)

  6. Thanks for the update. I was talking with my brother last night, he lives in Miami, and we’re going ‘no way’. He lives on the Miami River and they were having another king tide.

  7. Thank you for your posts…you are the only source of weather forecasts that does not send me into a panic mode, as I live at ground level South End on Tybee.
    Try to ignore the negative energy from the unbalanced posts of the crazies! 👍

  8. I am new to your posts and please, please don’t stop. Your info is critical to making good decisions. Don’t let a vocal minority win. You are much appreciated

  9. I am one of your many Enki fan club coterie who will sorely miss your cogent, always on target observations and especially the super accurate weather analysis you graciously share with us which we will sorely miss.
    Please ignore the haters and don’t abandon us…we really need you to keep us all straight when we need it the most….thank you!

    • +1 to what Kris said. I saw a doom and gloom blurb on the browser’s news page and immediately ignored it to come here for the real scoop.

  10. I have always greatly appreciated your sharing and knowledge. Thank you so much for continuing at least for now.

  11. Thank you for keeping us aware ahead of time. I am sorry there are trolls out there that can’t just appreciate good information at face value. Your posts give ME peace of mind! Praying for you to achieve the same!

  12. I greatly appreciate what you do to guide us through all types of weather. You are our go to guy and we trust you! Thank you so much and please don’t stop. There will always be ridiculous haters no matter what meaningful thing you do in life.

  13. I am so, so very thankful for you and your posts. I truly understand why you’ve had to pull back, but, selfishly, it breaks my heart. I live in Savannah. My parents (83 and 88) live just outside of Jesup. They depend on me for everything regarding evacuations, etc… And, I have come to depend on you for a clear-headed logical explanation – which helps me to make more informed decisions. Thank you for the time you have given us. And, we will (most of us) gratefully accept what feel you can now offer.

  14. We are newbies to hurricane weather. We greatly appreciate your messages and hope you will continue posting them. We echo KBrenard’s comments.

  15. A big thank you from a regular reader from Charleston. Very grateful for your hype-free updates – they help keep this storm-averse person sane during hurricane season!

  16. I really appreciate your thoughtful and detailed posts and I rely on them for planning as I live in the Tampa Bay area. For example I have travel planned via Miami on Thursday and I was able to get in touch the airline and come up with a contingency booking for a day earlier. I would be totally fine with you turning off comments entirely if we could continue to get your regular severe weather posts.

  17. Please keep posting. My family and I trust your reports more than any others. You’re doing good work. Ignore anyone else who can’t appreciate that.

  18. Thank you for providing this valuable service. I’ve relied on you for sane, reasoned info to counter the weather channel advertising incentivized panic inducement since Matthew. I’m sorry you have to deal with kooks and trolls. Please know that there are many of us that appreciate what you do.

  19. Your clear headed, no hype storm analysis is by far the best out there. Don’t let the haters bring you down. They are irrelevant.

  20. You are by far the best and most reliable and respected weather guru. Please include me if you start subscriptions. Thanks for all that you do!

  21. Thank you for your insights and thoughtful weather updates. It is helpful to read the well constructed and truthful information on what to expect regarding the hurricanes.

    Turn off comments if it gets too much from the weird side.

Leave a Reply