Total Lunar Eclipse this morning (and that storm thingee)

Just a reminder if you’re up before sunrise on the east coast, if the sky is clear look low in the western sky and you can see a total lunar eclipse in progress. As I write this (4:40am EDT) the moon is about half in the Earth’s shadow, totality (when the moon will be completely inside the inner shadow) will be at 5:15am. In the rest of the country you should have increasingly better views; on the west coast and Hawai’i almost overhead for you guys up late.

click to embiggen; pics of eclipse to come later.

Very little change in the Nicole forecast – obligatory link to NHC’s Key Messages regarding Subtropical Storm Nicole (en Español: Mensajes Claves). Still classified as subtropical, it should become a tropical storm later today as it turns sharply towards Florida. “landfall” now looks to be more central than South Florida, but that doesn’t matter too much. East coast of Florida and the Georgia coast up to Brusnwick are now under a tropical storm warning; watches for the west coast of Florida. Expect the watches to creep northward today to the Savannah and SC Lowcountry. As for impacts, nothing has changed, the post yesterday afternoon except the timing, with impacts being about 12-18 hours earlier than the estimate yesterday. The peak water levels along the GA/SC coast will probably be around 10.5 ft MLLW (Fort Pulaski gauge) on Thursday morning high tide. On this track, the worst will likely be Thursday night rather than Friday, and other than scattered power outages and some limbs down I don’t expect serious impacts to the northern GA coast and SC other than shallow coastal flooding Wednesday and Thursday mornings right on the coast

At this point no idea about closures in GA/SC., hard to know which way the decision makers are likely to bounce. Like Ian, it’s another borderline case for schools and other facilities, except this time I think it’s probably leaning a lot more towards the “no” side than the “yes” side north of maybe Darien. Thursday and Friday will be messy in either case. Blustery for a couple days, maybe some periods of heavy rain, but nothing dangerous or probably really all that disruptive except in localized places.

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