Sort of Tropical Storm Nicole

There has been a very broad area of disturbed weather than has consolidated enough for NHC to start advisories and tracking this morning. Here are the Key Messages regarding Subtropical Storm Nicole. Here is the impact swath using the new forecast – it’s expected to be a big storm with broad (but not catastrophic) impacts:

Click to embiggen.

The forecast track is only fair at this point, but that probably doesn’t matter too much unless it strengthens more than currently forecast. The NHC track has the storm making landfall around Vero Beach as a tropical storm, but GFS now has it landing over Miami as a hurricane. We should know more later today. Either way, the entire southeast coast from Miami to the Outer Banks will probably feel this at some point. Expect some track shifts as things settle down. There are tropical storm watches over The Bahamas, and the US coast will start to see watches today. Florida is going to see some damage – maybe upwards of $2 Billion, with some compounding due to the ongoing cleanup from Ian.

By the way, remember that due to the time change NHC advisories are now at 4am, 10am, 4pm, and 10pm, with intermediate updates at 7am, 1pm, 7pm, and 1am. NHC advisories and all weather forecasts globally are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC – formerly known as Greenwich Mean Time – GMT) so it changes with our stupid time zone shifts.

For Coastal Georgia and the SC Lowcountry, the onshore winds will mean tides will be running above normal this week – tomorrow is full moon (and remember there is a total lunar eclipse in the morning, peak will be around 6am with the moon low in the west). So we all know what that means: people right on the coast will likely seem some shallow flooding around high tides. On the current track and speed the peak storm effects in this area will be late in the week, Friday and Saturday as the storm passes either directly over the area or just offshore. Winds should pick up Tuesday (this is a very broad storm system), and Friday will likely be messy – or not, depending on the exact track. At this point hard to tell if there will be cancellations Friday. Things should start to clear out Saturday – but the timing is hard to tell at this point.

Administrative note: as previously noted, I’m still trying to figure out how to navigate the increasingly nasty internet environment and to what extent to continue posts, and in what format.. Since this storm will impact many of those who have followed the blog for some time I will be doing periodic posts (and for those who don’t like it can just, um, well, you know – why are you wasting time bothering me if I don’t know what I’m talking about???). I’m going to allow for comments for now in case people have questions (and to be fair the vast majority are great!)

Bloomberg TV spot today …

Even though it’s technically not quite over (something may form in the central Caribbean next week), folks have started wrapping up the hurricane season. Going to be on Bloomberg TV sometime between 10:30 and 11am today (Fri 28 Oct) talking about economics, hurricanes, and climate change. Will try not to say Climate Change isn’t the biggest risk we face, it’s geopolitical shenanigans and failed systems of governance … ok, yes, I will say that.

How economists think about disasters.

Still trying to figure out the best way to go forward and to what extent to engage in public outreach. Sadly allowing comments are a thing of the past, and aside from the historical posts on the risk of nuclear weapons (some have been restored) probably not much geopolitical commentary, even though that’s a lot of my work/research these days.

Why I’m shutting things down

I’d again like to thank everyone for the support over the last few days. While I considered just removing everything and leaving it a mystery, on further reflection I’ve decided to post the full reason behind this decision. As noted, time and resources are a factor, but those are solvable. However, the main reason isn’t fixable, at least not by me: I’ve received a number of physical threats over time, and recently those threats have escalated. While most of them involve the geopolitics posts, a surprising few also involve mundane topics like hurricanes. So I think it best to move on.

I’ve never been comfortable with public attention. People who thrive on it might find this unbelievable, and our celebrity obsessed culture doesn’t understand my point of view at all. Although it was never really a secret, and easy enough for someone to find out who I am, I don’t think I ever actually posted my name here on the blog – it was always a source of amusement when my wife would be asked if she followed “that Enki dude” to get hurricane advice. Partly that’s the old-school scientific approach – third person, keep personalities out of it. I absolutely hate doing interviews, and media attention literally upsets my stomach. Then there’s social media …

Between Facebook, Twitter, and direct blog links, when I do a post roughly 30,000 people get it more or less directly, and a popular (or unpopular!) post is often exposed to 200,000 individuals. A few have been several times that number. Now, in internet terms, that’s borderline trivial. But in sociological terms it’s a problem. According to some research, depending on how you define it at least 0.5% of Americans suffer from AntiSocial Personality Disorder, and while it’s not in the DSM, levels of ASPD that result in what is commonly called psychopathic behavior (that leads to the anger, etc. expressing as physical violence) is probably on the order of 0.1% or one in a thousand. So that means given that audience size, there are at well over a thousand jerks out there who will be disruptive, and at least a dozen or more for whom that might tip over in to them taking action to some degree in the real world. At least one of these individuals lives in my own neighborhood, which is concerning.

I think the political (and overall) culture in the US has been devolving for some time. Many have expressed concerns about it, usually in reference to the “other” side, but a neutral perspective would probably hold that everybody is sinking to the lowest common denominator which, as noted above, is psychopathy. Everybody is amped up, be it from COVID, the economy, or the increasingly angry political discourse. I wrote much of the following back in January, but I think it needs repeating here:

I almost never get a reasoned argument or discussion with someone who disagrees with a blog post; it almost always starts with some kind of ad-hominum attack and accusation. Yes, I could just block comments, and ignore the emails, etc. but part of the reason to do this is education – both the readers and me. I’ve gotten GREAT questions over time, and that makes doing commentary worthwhile. And, like Dr. House, I freely admit the theoretical possibility of error 😛 (and for typos and phrasing for early morning posts it’s often more than theoretical!). Feedback is essential for the process to work. But, even aside from the threats, the feedback process is broken.

It’s horrifying scanning social media these days. People who I know to be compassionate and reasonable in person are re-posting and echoing vitriolic links that are destructive to the fabric of our society. This phenomena was well described in the recent documentary, The Social Dilemma. Please watch it before you go down this road, and I beg everyone to please think before you echo some snarky political post that converts complex issues into some meme.

Take almost any issue today, and the opening salvo starts with accusations that anyone who disagrees is evil, uninformed, or both. Debates are almost never over the substance of an issue, they are straw-man arguments over caricatures of the other side. Yet take almost any of these issues, and if you dig down you find that each side is usually just worried about different, yet valid, aspects of the same problem, and a solution that makes things better is readily obtainable, if only the “sides” would recognize that each has a point. Unfortunately, as I often rant, that approach doesn’t fit into a political and media environment that thrives on confrontation, and real solutions to problems are actually “destructive” to the engine that drives their profits and votes: your outrage.

So, as we go forward with multiple challenges ranging from the ongoing pandemic, a major confrontation between nuclear armed adversaries, an economy teetering on the edge of collapse, an election that is nastier than the last, and other problems we don’t even know about yet, please don’t make things worse. Certainly the problems we face are serious, in many cases they hit emotional triggers. But we will solve them using rationality and empathy in equal measure, not by spreading anger and division. If you feel you can contribute to a discussion, make civil arguments that appeal to reason and our shared humanity, and recognize that the “other” might have a valid point that needs consideration. Don’t just try to score points with people you agree with by denigrating the “other.” You and your tribe might think it’s funny, but it is just making things worse.

Please resolve to think before you comment, repost, retweet, or forward an email that is toxic.

This environment that is being created by otherwise “nice” people is especially dangerous in that it gives those who are truly disturbed more of a reason, and agency, to act out on their violent impulses. Your on-line personas can have real-world consequences for others.

So that’s it. In brief, I’m not going to expose myself or my family to the risk someone decides to act out against me just because they don’t like my opinion about something, or associates me with some point of view that I don’t actually have, but am trying to convey is in some ways valid and needs to be considered in constructing our response (such as Russia’s view of the situation in Ukraine). I think we are losing a lot of voices that probably should be heard. I’m not saying I’m one of them, but I’m also not alone in leaving or avoiding public commentary, and unlike mine some of those lost voices are important.

In conclusion, I am going to leave the FB page, blog, and twitter live, if mostly inactive. If something serious comes up like a landfalling storm I’ll probably do some limited posts, so if you would like to get them leave your likes/follows or blog registrations in place and you’ll get them.

PTC Thirteen, blog and social media update

At 11am the US National Hurricane Center started advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen. It will likely become a real depression overnight, and a tropical storm tomorrow. NHC started advisories with the “PTC” tag because it’s technically not a tropical cyclone, but is so close to land that they didn’t want to wait to start advisories. Here is the track and my TAOS/TC model impact swath, expected to be a hurricane at landfall in Nicaragua on Sunday.

click to embiggen

I deeply appreciate the offers of help and contributions as I sort out what to do next! The blog and social media are undergoing extensive revisions, and most of the content either moved, deleted or in the process of being deleted, so there’s probably lots of dead links. The Patreon site has been shut down, I just don’t feel I can support it, and at the moment not taking any contributions via the blog until I have a plan (then you can decide if it’s worth it!). I’m considering how to move forward after this season, and if I do so will likely take some of you up on offers to help.