#Nicole Update, Wed. 9 Nov 2022

TLDR: some damage in Florida, two blustery days with the potential for shallow coastal flooding right on the coast in GA/SC – think nor’easter – but nothing dangerous. Here’s the details:

As of this morning Nicole has finally gained enough tropical characteristics to be declared a tropical storm, but is still isn’t really very tropical. The winds are just below hurricane force, but the tropical storm winds are extensive, extending nearly nearly 400 miles to the north of the center of the storm. Here is a link to the Key Messages regarding Tropical Storm Nicole (en Español: Mensajes Claves), and the impact swath from my TAOS/TC model:

click to embiggen.

Nicole will likely have an area of hurricane force winds when it hits Florida. Right now the thinking is the storm will lose tropical characteristics quickly. Still, given the residual damage from Ian, likely economic impacts will be in the $2 Billion USD range. The track guidance is fairly tight until landfall, but the speed of the turn might technically take the storm back over the Gulf although it won’t help it regain strength. Again, this is a big storm, so the track (and NHC’s “cone of shame”) don’t matter so much. Fee free to ignore anyone who even mentions the cone other than to say don’t use it (like that guy on local radio in Savannah who was jibbering incoherently about it this morning).

For the Georgia/South Carolina coast, there are three factors. The first is the wind, which probably won’t be that bad even though we are on the “strong” side of the storm. Just a blustery couple of days, maybe some scattered power outages. The trees are already “hunkering down” for fall/winter, so they are less likely to drop limbs although a few aren’t out of the question. Weak tornadoes/water spouts are possible on this side of the storm, so keep your weather radio armed. The second factor, for those right on coast, is that tides will run well above normal the next two days due to high onshore winds, on the order of two to three feet. At Fort Pulaski, the forecast for the tides this morning and tomorrow are for between 10 and 10.5 feet, which is the moderate flood stage. We should stay below 10.5 feet. What that means in the real world is …

At 9.5 ft MLLW, minor coastal flooding occurs. Flooding will begin to impact Shipyard Road to Burnside Island. Parts of Ft Pulaski National Monument will begin to flood, including several trails. Flooding will also begin to impact Tybee Island including Catalina Dr and Lewis Ave. In Bryan County, water could breach docks near Ft McAllister and flooding will impact portions of Mill Hill Rd. In Liberty County, flooding impacts the Halfmoon Landing area and Cattle Hammock Rd near Bermuda Bluff subdivision. At 10.0 ft MLLW, moderate coastal flooding occurs. Shipyard Rd will be impassable, isolating residents on Burnside Island. Water will start to encroach on HW-80 and as the tide gets closer to 10.5 ft MLLW, could begin to cover portions of the roadway. Flooding will expand on Tybee Island and Catalina Dr and Lewis Ave will be impassable. Flooding will also impact Wilmington Island, the Coffee Bluff community, Ossabaw Island, Sapelo Island, and portions of HW-17 south of Darien. At 10.5 ft MLLW, major coastal flooding occurs. Damaging flooding is expected, expanding along the entire southeast Georgia coast. Flooding will likely cause the closure of HW-80, isolating residents on Tybee Island. Several other island communities will also likely become isolated due to flooded and impassable roadways. On Tybee Island, widespread significant flooding is expected with numerous properties impacted.

From NWS WSFO Charleston flood stage guide

Rain is the other factor. There is some potential for “training” – embedded rain cells to line up and dump on one spot for long periods of time. Those spots might get a lot of rain and some localized flooding. But on the plus side it’s a fast moving system. Here is the rain total forecast for the next five days. It doesn’t look so bad at this point:

As for timing, conditions will deteriorate across the GA/SC coast today from south to north, dry most of the day with rain moving in tonight after sunset. Using Savannah as the reference, winds should pick up after noon today, and stay gusty until after noon Friday. I’m not seeing a distinct “peak” of the winds, given the expected organization of the storm. By sunset Friday it should all be over. If you live south of Savannah like Brunswick, things will happen a few hours earlier; if north (Beaufort/HHI) a few hours later.

So all in all, if in Central Florida you should be wrapping up preparations for a minimal hurricane. Everywhere else should prepare for a blustery day that will feel more like a nor’easter than a hurricane. Inconvenient, but not really hazardous outside localize street flooding and right on the coast. Right on the water, if you flood with tides 2-3 feet above normal, be ready for that at the morning high tides Thursday and Friday.

Why I’m shutting things down

I’d again like to thank everyone for the support over the last few days. While I considered just removing everything and leaving it a mystery, on further reflection I’ve decided to post the full reason behind this decision. As noted, time and resources are a factor, but those are solvable. However, the main reason isn’t fixable, at least not by me: I’ve received a number of physical threats over time, and recently those threats have escalated. While most of them involve the geopolitics posts, a surprising few also involve mundane topics like hurricanes. So I think it best to move on.

I’ve never been comfortable with public attention. People who thrive on it might find this unbelievable, and our celebrity obsessed culture doesn’t understand my point of view at all. Although it was never really a secret, and easy enough for someone to find out who I am, I don’t think I ever actually posted my name here on the blog – it was always a source of amusement when my wife would be asked if she followed “that Enki dude” to get hurricane advice. Partly that’s the old-school scientific approach – third person, keep personalities out of it. I absolutely hate doing interviews, and media attention literally upsets my stomach. Then there’s social media …

Between Facebook, Twitter, and direct blog links, when I do a post roughly 30,000 people get it more or less directly, and a popular (or unpopular!) post is often exposed to 200,000 individuals. A few have been several times that number. Now, in internet terms, that’s borderline trivial. But in sociological terms it’s a problem. According to some research, depending on how you define it at least 0.5% of Americans suffer from AntiSocial Personality Disorder, and while it’s not in the DSM, levels of ASPD that result in what is commonly called psychopathic behavior (that leads to the anger, etc. expressing as physical violence) is probably on the order of 0.1% or one in a thousand. So that means given that audience size, there are at well over a thousand jerks out there who will be disruptive, and at least a dozen or more for whom that might tip over in to them taking action to some degree in the real world. At least one of these individuals lives in my own neighborhood, which is concerning.

I think the political (and overall) culture in the US has been devolving for some time. Many have expressed concerns about it, usually in reference to the “other” side, but a neutral perspective would probably hold that everybody is sinking to the lowest common denominator which, as noted above, is psychopathy. Everybody is amped up, be it from COVID, the economy, or the increasingly angry political discourse. I wrote much of the following back in January, but I think it needs repeating here:

I almost never get a reasoned argument or discussion with someone who disagrees with a blog post; it almost always starts with some kind of ad-hominum attack and accusation. Yes, I could just block comments, and ignore the emails, etc. but part of the reason to do this is education – both the readers and me. I’ve gotten GREAT questions over time, and that makes doing commentary worthwhile. And, like Dr. House, I freely admit the theoretical possibility of error 😛 (and for typos and phrasing for early morning posts it’s often more than theoretical!). Feedback is essential for the process to work. But, even aside from the threats, the feedback process is broken.

It’s horrifying scanning social media these days. People who I know to be compassionate and reasonable in person are re-posting and echoing vitriolic links that are destructive to the fabric of our society. This phenomena was well described in the recent documentary, The Social Dilemma. Please watch it before you go down this road, and I beg everyone to please think before you echo some snarky political post that converts complex issues into some meme.

Take almost any issue today, and the opening salvo starts with accusations that anyone who disagrees is evil, uninformed, or both. Debates are almost never over the substance of an issue, they are straw-man arguments over caricatures of the other side. Yet take almost any of these issues, and if you dig down you find that each side is usually just worried about different, yet valid, aspects of the same problem, and a solution that makes things better is readily obtainable, if only the “sides” would recognize that each has a point. Unfortunately, as I often rant, that approach doesn’t fit into a political and media environment that thrives on confrontation, and real solutions to problems are actually “destructive” to the engine that drives their profits and votes: your outrage.

So, as we go forward with multiple challenges ranging from the ongoing pandemic, a major confrontation between nuclear armed adversaries, an economy teetering on the edge of collapse, an election that is nastier than the last, and other problems we don’t even know about yet, please don’t make things worse. Certainly the problems we face are serious, in many cases they hit emotional triggers. But we will solve them using rationality and empathy in equal measure, not by spreading anger and division. If you feel you can contribute to a discussion, make civil arguments that appeal to reason and our shared humanity, and recognize that the “other” might have a valid point that needs consideration. Don’t just try to score points with people you agree with by denigrating the “other.” You and your tribe might think it’s funny, but it is just making things worse.

Please resolve to think before you comment, repost, retweet, or forward an email that is toxic.

This environment that is being created by otherwise “nice” people is especially dangerous in that it gives those who are truly disturbed more of a reason, and agency, to act out on their violent impulses. Your on-line personas can have real-world consequences for others.

So that’s it. In brief, I’m not going to expose myself or my family to the risk someone decides to act out against me just because they don’t like my opinion about something, or associates me with some point of view that I don’t actually have, but am trying to convey is in some ways valid and needs to be considered in constructing our response (such as Russia’s view of the situation in Ukraine). I think we are losing a lot of voices that probably should be heard. I’m not saying I’m one of them, but I’m also not alone in leaving or avoiding public commentary, and unlike mine some of those lost voices are important.

In conclusion, I am going to leave the FB page, blog, and twitter live, if mostly inactive. If something serious comes up like a landfalling storm I’ll probably do some limited posts, so if you would like to get them leave your likes/follows or blog registrations in place and you’ll get them.